Bitcoin halving is one of the most closely watched events in the cryptocurrency world. It’s a unique mechanism built into Bitcoin’s code that cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half, occurring approximately every four years. This event has significant implications for Bitcoin’s supply, price, and overall market dynamics. With the latest halving having just occurred in May 2024, the focus now shifts to the next one, set to take place in 2028. Here, we’ll dive into what Bitcoin halving is, when the next one is expected, and what impacts it has historically had on Bitcoin’s price.
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Bitcoin halving refers to the event where the block reward for miners is cut in half, reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are introduced into circulation. When Bitcoin was first created in 2009, the block reward was 50 BTC per block. As per Bitcoin’s protocol, this reward is halved every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins is reached.
Currently, as of May 2024, the block reward is 3.125 BTC per block. The next halving event, which will occur in 2028, will reduce the reward to 1.5625 BTC. This reduction in reward directly impacts the supply of Bitcoin, as fewer new coins are created after each halving. Historically, this supply shock has had a major impact on Bitcoin’s price, as scarcity and increasing demand often drive prices higher.
When Was the Latest Bitcoin Halving?
The most recent Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2024, when the reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Leading up to this event, Bitcoin’s price had been fluctuating between $30,000 and $40,000, experiencing both bullish and bearish trends amid the global economic climate and regulatory developments.
After the halving in May 2024, Bitcoin saw an initial surge in price, as is typical for Bitcoin halvings. This increase was driven by expectations of reduced supply, along with growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and a general shift towards decentralized finance. By mid-2025, Bitcoin’s price had crossed the $70,000 mark, fueled by continued mainstream adoption and recognition of Bitcoin as a store of value.
How Have Past Bitcoin Halvings Affected Price?
Bitcoin halvings have historically been a catalyst for major price increases. While halving alone does not guarantee a price surge, it has been strongly correlated with Bitcoin’s upward price movements over the years. Let’s review the effects of previous halvings:
- The First Halving (2012)
The first Bitcoin halving took place on November 28, 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Leading up to the event, Bitcoin’s price had been gradually rising, from around $2 in early 2012 to about $12 at the time of the halving.
After the event, Bitcoin’s price experienced a meteoric rise, peaking above $1,100 in late 2013. The supply shock created by the halving, combined with growing media attention and adoption, triggered this rapid price increase.
- The Second Halving (2016)
The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, 2016, when the reward was reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. At the time, Bitcoin’s price was around $600, but by the end of 2017, it had exploded to nearly $20,000. The 2016 halving was a key factor in this price rally, as the market adjusted to the reduced block reward and growing global awareness of Bitcoin. - The Third Halving (2020)
The third Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, reducing the reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In the lead-up to this halving, Bitcoin’s price had been hovering between $8,000 and $10,000. Post-halving, Bitcoin’s price soared, reaching a high of over $68,000 in November 2021. The 2020 halving coincided with a global economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a store of value.
What to Expect from the 2028 Halving
The 2028 Bitcoin halving will be the fourth in Bitcoin’s history and will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC. While it’s difficult to predict exact outcomes, historical trends suggest that the 2028 halving will likely result in several key market effects:
- Price Surge Due to Scarcity
As with previous halvings, a reduction in the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation could lead to a price increase. With only 1.5625 BTC being mined every 10 minutes, the supply of new coins will be even more limited, increasing scarcity. If demand for Bitcoin remains strong or continues to grow, this scarcity could drive the price higher in the months following the halving. - Institutional and Mainstream Adoption
By 2028, Bitcoin may have further cemented its position as a mainstream asset. Institutional investors may become even more entrenched in the market, and countries may have clarified their regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies. If Bitcoin is more widely accepted as a store of value or even a medium of exchange, the post-halving period in 2028 could see a more sustained price rise compared to previous cycles. - Increased Public Awareness and Use Cases
Bitcoin’s growing role in decentralized finance (DeFi) and as an inflation hedge will likely continue to increase its appeal. By 2028, Bitcoin’s role in the financial system may be even more integrated, with more use cases emerging beyond just digital gold. The 2028 halving may coincide with new innovations in blockchain technology and Bitcoin scaling solutions, further driving demand. - Possible Volatility and Speculation
Bitcoin has always been volatile, and while halvings tend to drive prices higher in the long run, short-term price swings can be unpredictable. The 2028 halving could be followed by a period of price consolidation or even a pullback as market participants adjust. Speculation and hype around the event will likely fuel significant short-term volatility.
The 2028 Bitcoin halving is poised to be another defining moment in the cryptocurrency’s journey. With the block reward set to drop to 1.5625 BTC, the impact on Bitcoin’s supply and price will be significant. Historically, halvings have been followed by price increases, often due to the combined effects of scarcity, growing demand, and increased adoption. As Bitcoin continues to mature and evolve, the 2028 halving could be the catalyst for another dramatic price surge, fueled by institutional interest, regulatory clarity, and global economic trends.
Whether Bitcoin will follow the same path as previous halvings or diverge in new directions is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the 2028 halving will likely be another milestone in the evolution of the world’s most famous cryptocurrency.
